Is that a splinter in your party, or are you just happy to see me?

I've been asked to blog more about South African politics, because the U.S. presidential race is getting boring. Dudes, I am not surprised. With Barack Obama leading McCain by as much as 17 points in the latest Wisconsin poll, and 20 000 Americans in South Africa getting getting ready to cast their ballots, it is clearly already decided. Or at least beyond the control of anyone except Osama Bin Laden and the please-don't-break-if-I-so-much-as-look-at-you economy. One would like to think.

I'm attempting to summarize a process that I'm learning more about every day, the history of which is complex, and the details of which are different depending on who you talk to. The short story is, since President Mbeki stepped down (not happily), we have had interim president Kgalema Motlanthe running things. There will be elections in April for proportional representation in Parliament. It has been presumed that the ANC, the party that brought down apartheid, will continue to dominate, leading ANC President Jacob Zuma to the Presidency.

Most recently, rumors that the ANC might split into two factions, one loyal to Zuma, one loyal to not-Zuma, have proved accurate: Former ANC chair Mosiuoa Lekota has been condemning the ANC, threatening to leave the ANC, and at last was suspended by the ANC the other day. Lekota has been on the front page pretty much daily, and the question is not so much "Will he start a new party?" as "What the hell is he going to name it?"

The ANC is THE party in South Africa. There are a number of other parties, and in the Western Cape the Democratic Alliance (DA) has enough of a following that its leader, Helen Zille, is mayor of Cape Town. But the ANC is the heart of national politics, and if it splinters significantly enough to draw voters away from the original, things could get interesting. There are plenty of people who consider speech against the ANC to be on the level of treason - The ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema has sworn to "spill blood" for Jacob Zuma, among other very militant promises, and while he may be the most vocal, he's not alone. So, we watch Mr. Lekota, wait for word on those not-quite-finished-yet corruption proceedings against Jacob Zuma, and see what happens next.